So You Think You’re Smarter Than a Bond Trader?
It is ridiculous on so many levels to tell yourself that you know exactly what interest rates are going to do. Anecdotally, one only has to look back a few years to a time when everyone was advocating locking in mortgage rates because “inevitably” rates were going to rise soon and steeply (this is still the case btw). How did that work out? Even the guys that paid big bucks to do this for a living rarely forecast out further than two years, and even those predictions have been proven to be more guess than prediction. In July 2009 the Wall Street Journal asked fifty interest forecasters what the interest rate on the benchmark 10-year treasury note only one year later. Forty three of the “experts” predicted higher rates, while five more predicted static rates. When there is such unanimity across expert opinion, the prediction MUST have come to fruition right? Wrong! Rates went from 3.5% to 2.95%. Even Bill Gross, the man commonly described as the world’s best bond trader (and subsequently, greatest predictor of interest rates) has been stumped by the current interest rate environment. He predicted interest rates inevitably would rise (as many people feel confident enough to do on this site every week), of course the current 10-year US Treasury rate is hovering around 1.7% so Gross had to eat massive losses. He has even been quoted as saying he has “lost sleep” over the investments he made based on his treasuries prediction. Personally I’ll stick to my index ETFs!
Sounding Smart vs Sounding Correct
It’s not really that hard to make a plausible case either way when talking about interest rates. Just use a lot of partial truths and spin in order to sound convincing. For example, I could say something like, “With all of the ‘cheap money’ that governments around the world are pumping into economies interest rates are bound to skyrocket as money supply move lead to record inflation numbers.” However, it’s equally true that, “Recent Canadian inflation numbers were well below the 2% target rate the Bank of Canada sets as their standard. With the USA promising to keep rates low until 2015, it is highly unlikely Mr. Carney will move off of the current 1% mark due to the intense pressure it would put on Southern Ontario’s already toppling manufacturing-dependent economy.” I don’t even really know how true each of those statements are, but I know they sound logical, and that pieces of them definitely have some truth (like the best lies?).
There might be someone out there, or a small group of people that can predict interest rates with some degree of success or accuracy. Most likely they would be aided by a supercomputer and a complex algorithm that would serve as a useful model until it was broken by the next fundamental shift in the economy. In any case, if these people exist, they certainly wouldn’t be sharing that information with anyone else, they would be making boatloads of money off of it as fast as they could while they still had an advantage. Anyone whole believes that basic journalists or random anonymous bloggers/commenters know where interest rates will go with any degree of certainty simply needs to look at the track record of bond traders and predictors across generations to realize that it is all hot air and they might as well go outside and ask their dog. At least you know he doesn’t have a private agenda right?
As far as us regular folks go, there are two types two types of people in this world when it comes to predicting interest rates: those who don’t know where interest rates will be a year from now and those who don’t know that they don’t know where the interest rates will be a year from now. Pretty simple don’t you think?